Longhorn prediction(revised)

Well whyiron  and I did the Longhorn half bike course Saturday and pretty much race pace, well at least mine, Mark seemed like he could have gone a bit faster. Prior to this ride I was convinced that my fastest time for the course was about 2:43. I've loaded up the Garmin data but just have not had time to look back, after Saturdays ride though I'm going to be hard pushed to do the bike in less than 3-hours on race day.

That makes my prediction of 5:50 look unachievable. It even makes 6-hours look very hard. However, Saturday afternoon I went into Jack and Adams and they had a QR 2007 QRoo Seduza Tri Bike in stock. Thats my bike if I can do under 6-hours, its more reasonably priced than the Caliente and partly red, which always works for me. Here is what its going to take now though. And before you post, yes, I know the times add up to 6:04:20, I'm going to have to make the extra 5-mins somewhere...

Longhorn Half prediction
Time: 5:59:00(+9-mins)
Swim: 32.00(-3-mins
T1: 2:30(allowing for long run)
Bike: 2:59:00(+5-mins)
T2: 00:50
Run: 2:30
Tags: ,
change to the course
(Anonymous)
I noticed on the forum or website that the course has been changed, not sure if this has any impact on your time, it may bring you in for under 6 hours!

Do you reckon its a disc course? Ive read that its undulating. Just deciding what to pack.

Don't suppose you or anyone else has been out on the run course? any comments on it?

Darren
Re: change to the course
No the change makes almost no difference, and we never do that bit anyway on training rides as there is almost no shops or anything on the whole course.

I'd bring the disc wheel, it may turn out to be windy in which case you can borrow one of mine, but is otherwise perfect for a disc. Will call you when I get back at the w/e.
Sex on wheels
Nice, very nice.

Are you saying that that bike is your own reward to yourself for going under 6? That is a nice carrot ...
Re: Sex on wheels
Yes, if I can get around in under 6-hours then I know my less than optimal, more than normal training efforts have worked out and I should, as discussed, push on a plan a full IM race for next year.

If I don't do under 6 then I need to take some time off and rethink. I've never bought a new bike, apart from the first road bike which was only $499. The white Cannondale started life ff ebay for $375 with various adds, not to mention the new wheels. The red 'dale I road on Saturday start life as a frame, Kris bought the zipps for me, I bought the bars used off ebay, and bought the 105 group set. So, this is a bit of a reward, when I have to buy a car, I'll just buy a cheaper one...
If it were me
I'd aim for a couple mins slower on the bike to make it easy and then plan on crushing the run. 2:30 is 11:27/mi - admittedly, I've never seen you run, but I'd say there's some upside there.
Re: If it were me
Yeah and you might be right, I was discussing that with Mark while we rode on Saturday. My running is and always will be the problem because of past injuries, given my best half marathon time in the last 5-years is 2:04, 2:30 ought to be achievable if I can maintain a jog.

Thats why I think it comes down to the heat. Still, must go, need to try to do a decent run tonight! Won't be around this w/e for the bike course, probably going to do it on the 29th though at an easy pace as part of the taper and with Darren who is coming over from the UK.
So what exactly
is your nutrtion (fluids, calories, electrolytes) plan for the half?
Re: So what exactly
Based on experiments over the past 5-weeks on the bike course, I need to consume a minimum of 3x 750ml fluids, 2x electrolytes based, 1x carb, 2x cliff bars. Otherwise I start loosing too much weight from sweat and get light headed which doesn't help focus when running and I stop. Thats what happended the day you saw me walking after the bike.

I never drank the 3rd bottle that day and was 5lbs down when I got home, that was without much of a run, its too much to lose. Although 1-extra bottle won't make up 5lbs, it will keep me the right side of deficit. If its a bit cooler race day then the loss won't be as great, and I just can't drink more than 3-full bottles in 3-hours.

Then the plan would be 1x Power Bar gel on the way into T2, then 2x 500ml bottles on the run and maybe another gel.

Comments/Suggestions ??
Just to make sure I got it right
sorry, not the worlds greatest at imperial vs metric :P

So obviously (well, hopefully!) no intake on the swim, on the 3hr bike you're planning on taking in 2.25 liters or about 72 oz for 3 hours - 3 large bottles. I'd say thats ok for not hot conditions, but in hot conditions or where you are a heavy sweat producer, I'd try to aim for a liter an hour. You say 2x electrolyte based and 1x carb based... ? Can you give me X amount of sodium per electrolyte bottle or X calories of carb per carb bottle? And you're also planning on taking in 2 fullsize clif bars - those are around what, 250 carlories (and negligible electrolytes) per bar?

You really can't drink more then 1 bottle (750ml) an hour?

And you're saying a total of 1 liter for 2hrs of running ?

For me, I'd aim for ~400-600 mg sodium an hour, with 250-300 calories an hour and 24 oz fluid minimum, 32 if hot / I could stomach it. That's for the bike. For the run I'd aim for about 200/cal an hour and keep up the sodium. Fluids as the stomach can take them - sometimes I'll walk aid stations and down 2 cups quickly (i like 1 water, 1 gatorade) and then run again.