Half way to happieness

So, in a response to a post by anricat  yesterday I went and looked up my prior Half Ironman distance times, I struggled in the lead up to and at both races for different reasons, that was why I posted in response to Summers recent ankle problem.

Looking at those times made me think about my expectation for the Longhorn half, and of course I should have done it much sooner, and focussed on what really needed to improve, everything but the bike!

Wildflower 2003
Time: 07:22:57
Swim 00:40:48(went off course)
T1: 00:05:39
Bike: 03:38:21 (broke spoke on front wheel)
T2: 00:03:45
Run: 02:54:24

Yep, it went THAT badly.

Disney 70.3 2006
and not quite as bad
Time: 06:30:22
Swim: 39:03(just back from Heart valve problems, so took it easy)
T1: 1:58
Bike: 2:43:17(great bike, easy roads)
T2: 3:35
Run: 3:02:03(heat got to me)

Which of course lead me to making this prediction for the Longhorn race. I could definitely get around the bike quicker, but pay for it on the run, which I'll struggle with anyway, having not done 12-miles since the Disney race last year. I also ought to be able to do the swim a bit quicker. I've come down to thinking though its all going to be about the heat. If it's >85 degrees for the last half of the bike and the run, I'm going to struggle to keep up drinking 1500ml per hour, if its cooler than that, then I'm in with a chance.

Longhorn Half prediction
Time: 5:50:00
Swim: 35.00
T1: 2:30(allowing for long run)
Bike: 2:45:00
T2: 00:50
Run: 2:30
Tags: ,
I love predictions ...
Oooo, I love the smell of predictions in the morning, err, early afternoon.
Do you enjoy the event equally, and later recall it with equal feelings, whether you meet your prediction vs. not meeting your prediction? I ask because I struggle with that ...
[My prediction can be found here http://www.texasiron.net/forum/tm.aspx?m=489 (I'm the 'Mark' 2/3rds of the way down that page, goal times for races I care about in parens)]
Re: I love predictions ...
Depends. A couple of years back, 2005 and late 2004 I started treating triathlon like a fun run. I showed up for the Miamiman half distance race without really doing any proper training for the distance, and arrived at the race without even have properly set-up my bike. I DNF'd.

The first sprint I did in 2005 I didn't put the front wheel on properly, another I got to the start line without my swim googles, you can go back through my journal around that time and I didn't take races nearly serious enough. I think predictions for me are part of the build-up, my contract with myself to try to do well. After all, no ever posts that they are going to do badly...

Many post afraid that they will, they are just looking for reassurance though. After 9-years in the sport I know now that you have to treat even sprint races seriously if you want to be on the cycle of continual improvement, at which point I'm off to Barton Springs or Deep eddy.
Re: I love predictions ...
by the way, if you don't over cook it on the bie, with your running a sub-5:15 should be possible, and possibly a podium time but you are in a tough age group.
Re: I love predictions ...
By the way, thats not to say I don't have races that I remember fondly, that I didn't make predictions for.

Go look at my entry for the 11th of September 2006 and forward to the 24th. I never made a prediction for either race and had a great time at both. You'd really fly at Montreal... and I won the Clydesdale catgory at a tough race in Florida on the 24th... I was taking racing seriously again, just didn't expect to do so well.

Now, of course the opposite often happens with me, I make predictions and then blow-up trying to keep them. Lets see what happens this time!
What sort of time would you run for an open half marathon?